HE Minghui, WANG Yajing, ZHANG Bolun, et al
Journal of Clinical Radiology. 2026, 45(6): 987-994.
Objective To investigate the predictive value of a model that integrates baseline intravoxel incoherent motion(IVIM) diffusion-weighted imaging(DWI) parameters with clinical and immuno-inflammatory factors for predicting transarterial chemoembolization(TACE) resistance in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC). Method sPatients with HCC were enrolled and randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort at a 7∶3 ratio.Based on the occurrence of TACE resistance,patients were classified into the resistance group and the non-resistance group.Bidirectional stepwise Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for TACE resistance and to construct a predictive model.Model performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves,calibration curves,and metrics including accuracy,recall,precision,and the F1 score. Result sA total of 194 patients with HCC were included(median age,62 years;interquartile range:59-66),of whom 79 patients(40.72%)developed TACE resistance.Compared with the non-resistance group,the resistance group had a higher proportion of patients with Child-Pugh class B,China Liver Cancer(CNLC) stage Ⅲa,and an incomplete tumor capsule;a larger tumor diameter;and higher levels of platelet count,neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio(NLR),and perfusion-related diffusion coefficient(D*),along with lower apparent diffusion coefficient(ADC) values(all P<0.05).Multivariable Logistic regression analysis identified CNLC stage Ⅲa(OR=3.975,95%CI:1.198-13.185,P=0.024),elevated NLR(OR=2.211,95%CI:1.581-3.093,P<0.001),incomplete tumor capsule (OR=10.070,95%CI:3.141-32.284,P<0.001),and elevated D*(OR=1.121,95%CI:1.024-1.227,P=0.013) as independent risk factors for TACE resistance,whereas elevated ADC was identified as a protective factor(OR=0.424,95%CI:0.226-0.793,P=0.007).The predictive model constructed using these factors yielded an area under the ROC curve of 0.932(95%CI:0.888-0.975) in the training cohort,with an accuracy of 0.896,recall of 0.857,precision of 0.889,and F1 score of 0.873.Corresponding values in the validation cohort were 0.925(95%CI:0.861-0.990),0.847,0.783,0.818,and 0.800,respectively.Calibration curves for both cohorts showed good agreement with the ideal curve. Conclusion The predictive model,incorporating CNLC stage,NLR,tumor capsule status,ADC,and D*,exhibits good discrimination and calibration.It may serve as a reliable tool for the early identification of TACE resistance in patients with HCC.